Optimization of capture–recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture–recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture–recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture–recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (−6% to −27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture–recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture–recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.     

便携式GC-MS仪快速测定水中硝基苯及其在应急监测中的应用

采用便携式GC-MS仪快速测定水中硝基苯,通过优化水中离子强度和顶空加热时间,使方法在0μg/L^300μg/L范围内线性良好,方法检出限为2.5μg/L。标准溶液6次测定结果的RSD为7.8%~10.9%,实际水样的加标回收率为80.7%~103%。同步测定试验表明,硝基苯与7种苯系物分离良好。与国标方法对比,该方法单个样品测定时间由2 h缩短为15 min。将该方法用于应急监测工作中,及时有效的数据可为污水处理及事故调查提供分析和研判依据。     

玛纳斯河流域荒漠草地沙化遥感监测研究

以1989—2016年玛纳斯河流域TM/OLI遥感影像为数据源,利用混合像元分解技术,计算玛纳斯河流域草地总覆盖度和裸沙面积。在此基础上通过监测年与基期年的比较,计算草地覆盖度相对基期年的减少率和裸沙面积相对基期年的增加率两个监测指标,依据《天然草地退化、沙化、盐渍化的分级指标》(GB 19377—2003),对计算出的两个指标分别进行沙化等级评定和赋值,将两种评定结果相综合来监测草地沙化。结果表明,玛纳斯河流域近30年来荒漠草地沙漠化总体呈现先增加后降低的趋势。分析表明,玛纳斯河流域草地沙化是人为和自然因素双重作用的结果。     

数据挖掘在预测组织事故防控效果中的应用*

为进一步探索数据挖据技术在组织事故预防工作中的融入性与适用性，基于24Model构建事故预控基础模型,通过预测准确率数值及接受者操作特性曲线（ROC曲线）对比分析随机森林（RF）、支持向量机(SVM)、决策树（DT）与神经网络（NN）4种方法对组织事故防控效果的预测性能。结果表明:针对事故率控制（Y1）、职业危害预防（Y2）、财产损失3类预测目标（Y3），RF方法均能达到较高的准确率及稳定性，具有较优的预测性能。根据特征重要度（FI）排序，明确对组织事故水平影响最显著的因素为安全实践活动认知（SC5）及安全管理程序文件（SMS3），FI值均大于0.150 0。研究结果可为有效预测组织事故防控效果提供方法依据，同时为企业安全工作的规划设计提供思路。     

大数据环境下企业安全绩效管理的基础性问题*

为明晰大数据对安全绩效管理的影响，把握信息时代下企业安全绩效管理的研究方向，基于大数据时代下安全绩效管理内容，阐述数据驱动下安全绩效管理的应用优势，探讨数据驱动下安全绩效管理的研究变革，剖析大数据环境下企业安全绩效管理的数据流向，构建数据驱动下安全绩效管理的框架模型，并提出数据驱动下企业安全绩效管理应用对策。结果表明:基于大数据的安全绩效管理有助于提升企业安全管理水平，也为安全生产系统优化提供理论依据。     

Injury risk functions for frontal oblique collisions

Objective: The objective of this article was the construction of injury risk functions (IRFs) for front row occupants in oblique frontal crashes and a comparison to IRF of nonoblique frontal crashes from the same data set.

Method: Crashes of modern vehicles from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) were used as the basis for the construction of a logistic injury risk model. Static deformation, measured via displaced voxels on the postcrash vehicles, was used to calculate the energy dissipated in the crash. This measure of accident severity was termed objective equivalent speed (oEES) because it does not depend on the accident reconstruction and thus eliminates reconstruction biases like impact direction and vehicle model year. Imputation from property damage cases was used to describe underrepresented low-severity crashes―a known shortcoming of GIDAS. Binary logistic regression was used to relate the stimuli (oEES) to the binary outcome variable (injured or not injured).

Results: IRFs for the oblique frontal impact and nonoblique frontal impact were computed for the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+ and 3+ levels for adults (18–64 years). For a given stimulus, the probability of injury for a belted driver was higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique frontal crashes. For the 25% injury risk at MAIS 2+ level, the corresponding stimulus for oblique crashes was 40 km/h but it was 64 km/h for nonoblique frontal crashes.

Conclusions: The risk of obtaining MAIS 2+ injuries is significantly higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique crashes. In the real world, most MAIS 2+ injuries occur in an oEES range from 30 to 60 km/h.     

固定源排污许可证监测管理制度研究

依靠排污许可证管理,固定源执行由行业排放标准为主正逐步过渡到"国家行业排放标准——单一源排放标准"双层排放标准,并以执行更全面和精准的单一源排放标准为主,对应的监测要求及考核方式更加多样化。对监测管理制度进行设计,明确固定源制定自行监测方案和守法监测的主体责任,厘清许可证核发部门、属地监测、执法部门的监管职责。系统设计"固定源制定并提交自行监测方案-核发部门审核-方案纳入排污许可证中成为规定-依规定自行监测和记录-固定源提交执行报告-监管部门审计式审核-执法监测和执法检查"的全过程管理机制,设计标准化的监管计划程序落实证后监管与执法监测,明晰监管部门的有限责任。     

Using culturomics and social media data to characterize wildlife consumption

Wildlife provides food, medicine, clothing, and other necessities for humans, but overexploitation can disrupt the sustainability of wildlife resources and severely threaten global biodiversity. Understanding the characteristics of consumer behavior is helpful for wildlife managers and policy makers, but the traditional survey methods are laborious and time-consuming. In contrast, culturomics may more efficiently identify the features of wildlife consumption. As a case study of the culturomics approach, we examined tiger bone wine consumption in China based on social media and Baidu search engine data. Tiger bone wine is one of the most purchased tiger products; its consumption is closely related to tiger poaching, which greatly threatens wild tiger survival. We searched a popular social media website for the term “tiger bone wine” and focused on posts that were originally created from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2018. We filtered and classified posts related to the purchase, sale, or consumption of tiger bone wine and extracted information on providers, consumption motivations, year of production, and place of origin of the tiger bone wines based on the texts and photos of these posts. We found 756 posts related to tiger bone wine consumption, 113 of which mentioned providers of tiger bone wine, including friends (53%), elder relatives (37%), peer relatives (7%), and others (3%). Out of the 756 posts, 266 indicated the motivations of tiger bone wine consumption. Tiger bone wines were consumed as a tonic (34%), medicine (23%), game product (30%), and a symbol of wealth (28%). Some posts indicated ≥2 consumption motivations. These findings were consistent with the search queries from Baidu index. Such information could help develop targeted strategies for tiger conservation. The culturomics approach illustrated by our study is a rapid and cost-efficient way to characterize wildlife consumption.     

江苏省水质全要素代表性监测体系的设计

为了评价并进行城市水环境质量考核排名,介绍了江苏省组织开展涵盖地表水、饮用水、地下水、近岸海域和城市内河5种类型"全要素、代表性"水质监测断面(点位)体系建设工作的情况以及全要素断面设置的基本原则和做法。分苏南、苏北、苏中3个区域,对全省地表水监测代表性进行了量化计算,结果表明,调整后全省水质综合指数极差从41.07降至7.17,标准差从3.16降为0.49;采用德尔斐层次分析法分析,设计了水质代表性指数,含1项一级指标、5项二级指标、12项三级指标,计算表明,调整前全省水质代表性指数得分为69.1分,调整后为88.7分。将调整结果进行论证后再与各市环保主管部门交换意见,取得最终一致后正式实施。     

我国环境监测方法标准体系的现状与发展构想

综述了我国环境监测方法标准体系的发展历程和现状,分析了环境监测方法标准在数量和内容及技术水平等方面不能满足环境管理需要、方法标准体系不健全、科学性有待提高等问题,提出加强环境监测方法标准的顶层设计、构建天地一体化的环境监测方法标准体系、实行动态管理并加强质控、加强监测科研借鉴国际经验等发展构想。